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January Case Shiller Data Atrocious: "At Worst, The Feared Double-Dip Recession May Be Materializing"

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/29/2011 09:11 -0400

• Case-Shiller
• Double Dip
• Housing Market
• Housing Starts
• Recession
• recovery

Case Shiller data is out, and it is as horrible as ever. The Home Price Index came at 140.86 compared to 142.42 previously. Basically the double dip refuses to stop, and that even despite yesterday's "stunning"(ly irrelevant) pending home sales number.“Keeping with the trends set in late 2010, January brings us weakening home prices with no real hope in sight for the near future” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard &  Poor's. “With this month’s data, we find the same 11 MSAs posting new recent index lows. The 10-City and 20- City Composites continue to decline month-over-month and have posted monthly declines for six consecutive months now. “These data confirm what we have seen with recent housing starts and sales reports. The housing market recession is not yet over, and none of the statistics are indicating any form of sustained recovery. At most, we have seen all statistics bounce along their troughs; at worst, the feared double-dip recession may be materializing."

From the release:

"Data through January 2011, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show further deceleration in the annual growth rates in 13 of the 20 MSAs and the 10- and 20-City Composites compared to the December 2010 report. The 10-City Composite was down 2.0% and the 20-City Composite fell 3.1% from their January 2010 levels. San Diego and Washington D.C. were the only two markets to record positive year-over-year changes. However, San Diego was up a scant 0.1%, while Washington DC posted a healthier +3.6% annual growth rate. The same 11 cities that had posted recent index level lows in December 2010, posted new lows in January."

The chart above depicts the annual returns of the 10-City and the 20-City Composite Home Price Indices. In January 2011, the 10-City and 20-City Composites recorded annual returns of -2.0% and -3.1%, respectively. On a monthly basis, the 10-City Composite was down 0.9% and the 20-City Composite fell 1.0% in January versus December 2010. Only San Diego and Washington D.C. posted positive annual growth rates in January 2011. These are the only two cities whose annual rates remained positive throughout 2010. Every other MSA has either moved back into or has always been in negative territory during the recent housing crisis. On a monthly basis, Washington DC was the only market where home prices rose in January, but up only 0.1%. The remaining 19 MSAs and both Composites fell during the month, with 12 of the markets and the 20-City Composite down by at least 1.0% versus December 2010.

“Keeping with the trends set in late 2010, January brings us weakening home prices with no real hope in sight for the near future” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor's. “With this month’s data, we find the same 11 MSAs posting new recent index lows. The 10-City and 20- City Composites continue to decline month-over-month and have posted monthly declines for six consecutive months now.

“These data confirm what we have seen with recent housing starts and sales reports. The housing market recession is not yet over, and none of the statistics are indicating any form of sustained recovery. At most, we have seen all statistics bounce along their troughs; at worst, the feared double-dip recession may be materializing. A few months ago we defined a double-dip for home prices as seeing the 10- and 20-City Composites set new post-peak lows. The 10-City Composite is still 2.8% above and the 20-City is 1.1% above their respective April 2009 lows, but both series have moved closer to a confirmed double-dip for six consecutive months. At this point we are not too far off, and that is what many analysts are seeing with sales, starts and inventory data too.

Goldman Q1 GDP Imminent Downgrade Warning Gets Louder: "Significant Downside Risk To Our Q1 GDP Estimate Of +3.5% "

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/28/2011 09:18 -0400

• Gross Domestic Product

 


• Personal Consumption

 

Following last week's deplorable durable goods number, and the subsequent Goldman warning, i.e. "the data increase the sense of downside risk to our Q1 GDP estimate of 3.5%", Hatzius has just stepped it up a notch, adding a key adjective confirming it is just a matter of time now: "The latest real consumption figures - including revisions to earlier months - point to growth for Q1 as a whole of approximately 1.75-2.0% qoq annualized. This compares to our current forecast of +3.0%. The report therefore implies significant downside risk to our Q1 GDP estimate of +3.5% qoq annualized." We give it two weeks.

From Jan Hatzius' instanalysis on Personal Consumption data.

1. Nominal consumer spending increased by 0.7% mom in February, but part of the large increased reflected price gains. Real consumer spending increased by 0.3% mom after an unchanged reading in January. The latest real consumption figures - including revisions to earlier months - point to growth for Q1 as a whole of approximately 1.75-2.0% qoq annualized. This compares to our current forecast of +3.0%. The report therefore implies significant downside risk to our Q1 GDP estimate of +3.5% qoq annualized.

2. Nominal personal increase increased by 0.3% in February, slightly less than expected. However, income growth in January was revised up to +1.2% mom from 1.0% previously. Real disposable income - income adjusted for taxes and price change - fell by 0.1% during the month.

3. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.4% mom or 1.6% yoy, as expected. The core PCE price index rose by 0.2% mom (0.155% unrounded) or 0.9% yoy. The monthly growth rate was moderately below our forecast (+0.20% unrounded), but nevertheless confirms signs of firming in this inflation gauge. Growth in the market-based core PCE - which strips out non-market prices estimated by the Commerce Department - also accelerated to +0.17% mom from 0.12% in January.

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Dollar Cremation Resumes

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/24/2011 12:13 -0400

• Bob Pisani
• Reality
• Reserve Currency
• Russell 2000
• Yen

Just as Bob Pisani was getting giddy that for probably the second time in 2011 the dollar went up in concert with the Russell 2000, here comes reality washing over the true value of the world's most hated reserve currency, and forcing the DXY to drop to yesterday's lows, which incidentally are just pennies away from multi year lows. Should the Yen resume its strength forcing the BOJ et G7 to intervene again (just as ineffectively), look for the DXY to promptly take out all lows as the Bernank once again goes to the front of the currency devaluation race.

since the early 1970's we have not heard much about the misery index, if fact most people today never heard of such an index. I guess it might have something to do with who occupies the whitehouse. propaganda artists of the main stream media including fox out in full blather constantly telling the republic that the economy is improving, we are coming out of recession,  no talk of stagflation, can't have that. the chart shows an index in the 13.5 range, i think this is understated as well because it does not include the under-employed or those who have given up looking for work, more misinformation even from the  our friends at zero hedge.